The Planning Lab

Success is all about statistics

This TED talk by Mihaly Csikzentmihalyi about creativity and flow made me think about what actually determines greatness in life, both from an individual perspective and from a agency perspective. 

It all comes down to one thing: experience. Intelligence and talent is one thing, but becoming super-skilled is all about doing things many times over. After ten years of doing something, you will fully master it. So, it's all about statistics. Nassim Nicolas Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness, has an even more extreme position: he argues that success is totally random – people who have reached exceptional wealth have been the right people at the right time in the right environment. 

I'd say the outlook for somebody who believes only in statistics is rather gloomy, and I believe there's one way to beat the system: productivity (not really surprising, most exceptional people I know also happen to work a lot). So, if you're twice as productive as the average person, you will do twice as much and instead of ten years, you'll master a subject after five years. If you're lazy, things will take longer – unless you're a lucky bastard, that is. 

Success is all about statistics

This TED talk by Mihaly Csikzentmihalyi about creativity and flow made me think about what actually determines greatness in life, both from an individual perspective and from a agency perspective. 

It all comes down to one thing: experience. Intelligence and talent is one thing, but becoming super-skilled is all about doing things many times over. After ten years of doing something, you will fully master it. So, it's all about statistics. Nassim Nicolas Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness, has an even more extreme position: he argues that success is totally random – people who have reached exceptional wealth have been the right people at the right time in the right environment. 

I'd say the outlook for somebody who believes only in statistics is rather gloomy, and I believe there's one way to beat the system: productivity (not really surprising, most exceptional people I know also happen to work a lot). So, if you're twice as productive as the average person, you will do twice as much and instead of ten years, you'll master a subject after five years. If you're lazy, things will take longer – unless you're a lucky bastard, that is. 

Creative destruction

The new SAAB seems to better than anything that has come out of the previously GM-owned car manufacturer for a long time. Maybe it's PR work that has effectively positioned the new 9-5 as a great car. Or maybe it's a live example of Jospeh Schumpeter's idea of Creative Destruction – that past production resources must be destroyed in order to give way for innovation. For a corporation like GM that's evidently unable to renew itself, the best solution forward might a total dismantlement. 

Creative destruction

The new SAAB seems to better than anything that has come out of the previously GM-owned car manufacturer for a long time. Maybe it's PR work that has effectively positioned the new 9-5 as a great car. Or maybe it's a live example of Jospeh Schumpeter's idea of Creative Destruction – that past production resources must be destroyed in order to give way for innovation. For a corporation like GM that's evidently unable to renew itself, the best solution forward might a total dismantlement.

Finding real use for social media

Instead of using social media to find new ways of basically selling chocolate bars to people (aka advertising), shouldn't the power of these wonderful tools be used for something good instead? 

Obama used social media to mobilise a whole generation of people. This proves that the infrastructure can provide a great deal of momentum that cannot be stopped. And the more people that are connected, the more feasible it is. 

Imagine using Twitter and other social media for:

* Starting an elite university for everyone

* Finance a microcredit system for the third world

* Starting direct-democracy movements

* Igniting resistances and revolutions, and overthrowing regims

When everybody is connected to everybody, the only thing that's required is will, and the only limitation is the imagination. 

Related: The Piracy Lab: Will the crowd bail them out?

Finding real use for social media

Instead of using social media to find new ways of basically selling chocolate bars to people (aka advertising), shouldn't the power of these wonderful tools be used for something good instead? 

Obama used social media to mobilise a whole generation of people. This proves that the infrastructure can provide a great deal of momentum that cannot be stopped. And the more people that are connected, the more feasible it is. 

Imagine using Twitter and other social media for:

* Starting an elite university for everyone

* Finance a microcredit system for the third world

* Starting direct-democracy movements

* Igniting resistances and revolutions, and overthrowing regims

When everybody is connected to everybody, the only thing that's required is will, and the only limitation is the imagination. 

Related: The Piracy Lab: Will the crowd bail them out?

Can we break the 80-20 rule?

If we no not dare to challenge the share-of-voice-thinking with the belief that creativity is the key to efficiency (and eternal life), the logical excel sheet will win surely win.

Most agencies produce a lot of stuff that's bread-n-butter stuff. It's kind of "the way things work", and rightfully so, because it finances the creative stuff that wins awards and makes the world better. Ironically, the agency world is responsible for the stuff we call clutter to be able to do stuff that breaks out of it as a result of this equation.

Part of the problem is that we have an oversupply of media space that has to be filled. Any representative from the media agency world will tell you that this is the way it has to be.

But we know that a fist can hit harder than five fingers, but do we dare pick a fight in the first place? 

Can we break the 80-20 rule?

If we no not dare to challenge the share-of-voice-thinking with the belief that creativity is the key to efficiency (and eternal life), the logical excel sheet will win surely win.

Most agencies produce a lot of stuff that's bread-n-butter stuff. It's kind of "the way things work", and rightfully so, because it finances the creative stuff that wins awards and makes the world better. Ironically, the agency world is responsible for the stuff we call clutter to be able to do stuff that breaks out of it as a result of this equation.

Part of the problem is that we have an oversupply of media space that has to be filled. Any representative from the media agency world will tell you that this is the way it has to be.

But we know that a fist can hit harder than five fingers, but do we dare pick a fight in the first place? 

Creative starter: weekend decadence

The worse our weekdays are, the more precious our weekends become. So in recession times, brands can be more useful than ever. I'm not talking about the obvious consumption like alcoholic beverages, but a full spectrum of innovations  that make life easier and more enjoyable for city people, depending on what brand you are. Think in terms of a shift in priorities: although the weekend is only 20 percent of the week, people will spend 80 percent of their hedonistic life here, including budget.

Here's a mindmap. What products, services, utilities or other innovations come to mind? 

Creative starter: weekend decadence

The worse our weekdays are, the more precious our weekends become. So in recession times, brands can be more useful than ever. I'm not talking about the obvious consumption like alcoholic beverages, but a full spectrum of innovations  that make life easier and more enjoyable for city people, depending on what brand you are. Think in terms of a shift in priorities: although the weekend is only 20 percent of the week, people will spend 80 percent of their hedonistic life here, including budget.

Here's a mindmap. What products, services, utilities or other innovations come to mind?